Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Modelling
C-FER Technologies’ industry-leading PIRAMID models allow users to perform risk and reliability assessments with quantitative risk measures and probabilistic risk models to maximize objectivity.
Risk Measures (Outputs)
Qualitative
risk is characterized by descriptive categories, values of an index, or parameter range categories.
Quantitative
risk is characterized by the expected value of a parameter that quantifies the consequences.
Risk Models (Approaches)
Latest PHMSA Risk Modelling Working Group Guidance: “Probabilistic models are considered a best practice for supporting all decision types.”
Are your risk assessments truly quantitative and probabilistic?
- Does your risk assessment give results in physical units like number of failures or dollars per mile?
- Can you perform a cost-benefit analysis of your mitigation measures directly with your risk results?
- Is it possible to compare your current level of risk to other operators, other industries or standards?
- Are individual pipeline defects from in-line inspections considered in your risk assessments?
- Can you use your risk assessment results to decide which defects to repair?
- Can you defend your risk model and results using verifiable information?
- Does your risk assessment account for input and model uncertainty?
If you answered “no” to any of these questions, C‐FER’s PIRAMID models can help you get more out of your risk assessment and demonstrate superior risk management to shareholders and regulators.
Daniel Fujinaga, BSc
Engineering Manager, Integrity Management & Structures
Daniel Fujinaga the engineering manager for C-FER’s Integrity Management & Structures department. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Materials Engineering from the University of Alberta. Daniel’s expertise includes cathodic protection, materials engineering and data analysis.
