PIRAMID Risk Modelling
Proven to Give Accurate and Reliable Results
Best-practice Approach
- Probabilistic approach based on structural reliability methods to account for input and model uncertainty
- Approach identified as best practice for all risk-based decision making by a PHMSA-organized Risk Modeling Work Group1
- Quantitative outputs in objective risk assessment units like failures and dollars per mile
- Flexibility to combine detailed structural reliability models with historical failure rate data to assess all pipeline integrity threats
Reliable Results
- Validation of a probabilistic model that forecasts rare events requires data from a large system over an extended period. PIRAMID’s probabilistic models have been validated by simulating the conditions of over 3.5 million mile-years of pipelines and comparing the results with those in the PHMSA incident database.2
- PIRAMID uses verified engineering models found in established standards and the robust Monte-Carlo simulation method using pipe-specific input parameter distributions.
- C‐FER continues to build on its 35 years of research and development work to ensure PIRAMID’s models reflect the industry’s state-of-the-art
- Results have been further validated by successful application to over 60,000 mi of pipeline in 50+ consulting projects
Trusted by Industry and Regulators
PIRAMID’s Models:
- Have been used in (ongoing) development of the CSA Z662 standard, including:
- Calibration of the reliability targets used in Annexes C and O
- Validation of the (upcoming in 2023) risk criteria in Annex B
- Failure probability calculation guidance in Annex O
- A new pressure design approach that is being introduced to the standard
- Have been used to support regulatory submissions in both United States and Canada
- Are referenced throughout industry in training courses and risk assessment guidelines
- Have been adopted by major operators as a basis for internal risk models
1“Pipeline Risk Modelling Overview of Methods and Tools for Improved Implementation” – PHMSA 2020.
2“Target Reliability Levels for Design and Assessment of Onshore Natural Gas Pipelines” – IPC04-0321. Only equipment impact and corrosion models were validated in this exercise because they account for the majority of pipeline failures.
Daniel Fujinaga, BSc
Engineering Manager, Integrity Management & Structures
Daniel Fujinaga the engineering manager for C-FER’s Integrity Management & Structures department. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Materials Engineering from the University of Alberta. Daniel’s expertise includes cathodic protection, materials engineering and data analysis.
