Risk-based Approach to LNG Facilities
The LNG industry faces increasing scrutiny around safety and risk management. As a result, there is a growing demand for standardized, risk-based approaches to evaluate potential impacts on life and property. Quantitative Risk Assessments (QRAs) are emerging as a critical tool to:
- Define the probability of success for safety systems
- Identify high-risk areas requiring mitigation of identified risks
- Support informed decision-making across design and operational phases
Project Overview: Standardized QRA Methodology for LNG Facilities
PHMSA Project 731 2020 – Collaborators: PHMSA, GTI, Blue Engineering and Consulting, Idaho National Laboratory, C-FER
This project developed a standard methodology and set of guidelines for performing QRAs tailored to both new and existing LNG facilities. The framework accounts for varying levels of facility detail, depending on the design or operational stage.
To validate the methodology and benchmark its application, the project team applied the QRAs to two hypothetical facilities:
- An LNG peak shaving facility in the Northeastern U.S.
- An LNG export terminal on the U.S. Gulf Coast
These assessments included 15 sensitivity cases to demonstrate how input approximations and modeling assumptions can influence outcomes.
Global Alignment and Regulatory Context
The project team evaluated the guidelines against:
- NFPA 59A (2019)
- QRA methodologies used by regulators in the Netherlands, UK, and Singapore
The team documented key differences to support stakeholder understanding and ensure international applicability.
Recommendations for Future Research
To further advance QRA practices in the LNG sector, the project recommends:
- Benchmarking preliminary-design QRAs against detailed-design and operational facilities
- Expanding hazard mitigation options for detailed-design or operational-facility QRA’s
- Developing more accurate models for overload and triggering events (e.g., blast, impact)
- Enhancing probabilistic models for equipment failure for more practical and accurate modelling of cascading events
- Exploring combined risks from surrounding infrastructure
https://www.cfertech.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/LNG-schematic.png
Location-specific Individual Risk (LSIR) countours around a benchmark peak shaver facility
Contributor
Lowell McAllister, BSc, EIT
Junior Researcher
Lowell McAllister is a Researcher in C-FER’s Pipeline Integrity & Operations department.
His expertise includes engineering, mechanics, fracture mechanics, quantitative risk assessment, pipeline integrity, and data analytics.
Lowell has a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering Co-op with a Mathematics Minor from the University of Alberta.
