Daniel Fujinaga shares how the Lightning Strike Model can help with
your pipeline risk management.
Safeguarding Pipelines from Lightning Hazards
Protect buried pipelines from lightning-related damage with this predictive model.
Developed by C-FER Technologies, this model calculates the probability of pipeline failure by combining the likelihood of a lightning strike with the chance that it causes damage to the pipeline. It enables pipeline operators to assess site-specific risks and incorporate lightning threats into their broader risk management strategies.
Why Lightning Risk Matters
While lightning strikes may not be a universal concern, they become critical in regions with high lightning density or severe weather conditions. For pipelines operating in these areas, understanding the potential for lightning-induced damage is essential for maintaining safety and reliability. This model was originally developed in collaboration with a client seeking to evaluate lightning risk alongside other pipeline threats. It provides a structured way to assess how environmental and material factors influence the likelihood of failure.
What the Lightning Risk Model Considers
The model evaluates three key parameters:
Lightning strike current and position
Pipeline depth and soil ionization potential
Energy transmission via soil, conductors, or arcing
There are three primary mechanisms through which lightning can affect pipelines:
- Direct strike via above-ground components.
- Conduction through the soil.
- Soil ionization, which can generate excessive heat and potentially vaporize pipeline materials—leading to failure.
Simulation and Prediction
A Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for uncertainties in strike location and intensity. It helps differentiate between conduction and arcing scenarios, with the latter being more likely to cause damage.
To improve computational efficiency, a surrogate model was developed. This model links soil resistivity and burial depth directly to the probability of arcing, enabling fast and reliable predictions. It was calibrated using real-world failure data from steel and aluminum pipelines.
Practical Application
Pipeline operators can use this model to:
- Evaluate lightning risk in high-strike regions.
- Integrate lightning hazard assessments into broader risk frameworks.
- Make informed decisions about mitigation strategies and infrastructure design.
Contributors
Daniel Fujinaga, BSc
Engineering Manager, Integrity Management & Structures
Daniel Fujinaga the engineering manager for C-FER’s Integrity Management & Structures department. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Materials Engineering from the University of Alberta. Daniel’s expertise includes cathodic protection, materials engineering and data analysis.
Brian Wagg, MSc, PEng.
Director, Testing Services
With over 35 years with C-FER, Brian Wagg’s current focus is on applying C-FER’s analytical and full-scale testing capabilities to projects in clean energy including CCUS, hydrogen, geothermal and small modular nuclear reactors.
