Daniel Fujinaga shares how the Hydrologic Failure Rate Model
can help with your pipeline risk management.
Flood Risk Insights for Pipeline Water Crossings
Assess pipeline vulnerability at water crossings during flood events with this hydrologic failure rate model.
Developed by C-FER Technologies, the hydrologic failure rate model helps pipeline operators evaluate the risk of structural failure due to flooding—especially in areas where river crossings coincide with low burial depth or high flood potential.
Why Flood Risk Matters
Flooding can dramatically alter riverbeds, exposing previously buried pipeline segments to powerful hydrodynamic forces. These exposed sections may experience drag, flotation, or vortex-induced vibrations, which can compromise pipeline integrity. Understanding these risks is essential for prioritizing mitigation strategies within an operator’s integrity management program.
The model was developed in response to a client’s concern about shallow cover near a river crossing. It enables operators to assess site-specific vulnerabilities and make informed decisions about where hydrologic threats rank among other pipeline risks.
What the Model Considers
The model combines the probability of flooding with the chance that the flood causes structural failure of the pipeline. It uses a physical reliability framework to estimate failure under varying flood conditions by comparing imposed loading forces to the pipe’s bending strain capacity.
Key Model Inputs
Flood return periods and river flow rates
Pipeline stress, geometry, and burial depth
Scour scenarios: armour layer formation, local scour, general erosion
The model flags failure when unsupported pipe lengths exceed API RP 1133 limits under flow-induced or vibration-related loading.
Simulation and Decision Support
By evaluating three primary loading conditions—hydrodynamic drag, flotation, and vortex-induced vibration—the model identifies high-risk crossings. These are typically small to medium rivers in flood-prone areas with smaller-diameter pipelines.
Operators can use this model within a risk-based decision-making framework to:
- Estimate failure risk at specific crossings
- Prioritize hydrologic mitigation strategies
- Integrate flood risk into broader pipeline integrity planning
Contributors
Daniel Fujinaga, BSc
Engineering Manager, Integrity Management & Structures
Daniel Fujinaga the engineering manager for C-FER’s Integrity Management & Structures department. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Materials Engineering from the University of Alberta. Daniel’s expertise includes cathodic protection, materials engineering and data analysis.
Brian Wagg, MSc, PEng.
Director, Testing Services
With over 35 years with C-FER, Brian Wagg’s current focus is on applying C-FER’s analytical and full-scale testing capabilities to projects in clean energy including CCUS, hydrogen, geothermal and small modular nuclear reactors.
