Why Review Risk Models?
For the past three decades, the pipeline industry has been using quantitative risk assessments for evaluating pipeline risks.
These probabilistic quantitative risk approaches vary in the levels of detail and rigour required to implement them. The advantages of the selected approach are contingent on the level of detail and rigour in the operator’s methodology. The more rigorous the model, the greater the operational benefits. However, increased rigour requires more data and additional resources for implementation.
Operators required a consistent method of selecting or developing the right quantitative risk analysis (QRA) models for their operations. Regulators needed an approach for consistently assessing the operator’s chosen models
Review of Quantitative Risk Analysis Approaches
To address these needs, C-FER worked with PHMSA to conduct a non-biased review of QRA approaches for the pipeline industry.
The purpose was to review and compare how pipeline operators are applying QRA models in their operations.
The review also considered whether the pipeline industry could transfer models and learnings from other industries such as:
- nuclear,
- aviation,
- offshore,
- power transmission, and;
- pipeline stations & facilities (e.g. LNG plants, refineries, compressor, and pump stations).
C-FER Yourself
PIRAMID is C-FER’s comprehensive software tool designed for risk-based integrity assessment and maintenance planning for pipelines.
PIRAMID can help you evaluate and manage pipeline integrity by assessing pipeline risk, evaluating factors that impact this risk, managing defects, planning mitigation activities, and effectively communicating risk results to stakeholders.
C-FER’s 5 Step Review Process:
Industry survey of the key attributes of an effective QRA model and the decisions made based on model results.
Literature review of the pipeline industry of the available risk estimation models and analysis processes.
Literature review of models and guidelines used in other industries.
Guidelines for QRA model development.
Commentary on other facilities and LNG plants practices.
The review included assessments of how operators can use different methods to estimate the failure frequencies and their consequences for different applications in terms of life safety and environmental impact.
The project also provided a guideline for pipeline operators on how to develop and verify quantitative pipeline risk analysis models. The guideline focuses on processes for system-wide QRA as well as narrowly-focused QRA for individual failure threats (e.g. corrosion) or individual consequences (e.g. life safety).
Top Three Recommendations for Enhancing QRA Models
The project report provides three main recommendations to enhance the value of QRA models for pipelines including:
Develop a standardized list of interacting threats.
Standardize risk measures for environmental impact.
Develop life safety models for hazardous liquids similar to the potential impact radius (PIR) model for natural gas pipelines.
C-FER Yourself
Risk and Reliability
C-FER assists pipeline operators in comprehending the risks posed by complex engineering systems, presenting these risks in a way that informs decision-making processes.
Using engineering models, C-FER evaluates the probability of system failures and their potential consequences on life safety, environmental, and economic impacts. Learn more.
Historical Failure Rates
C-FER utilizes historical data to identify potential threats to your assets. With interactive, web-based visualizations, you can quickly gain meaningful insights from your data or the results of C-FER’s assessments. Learn more
Monte Carlo Simulation
C-FER leverages Monte Carlo simulations and statistical models to account for uncertainties in your data. For an in-depth look, visit our page on Monte Carlo simulation, where we explore its application in evaluating the burst pressure of corrosion features.
Standards Development
C-FER collaborates with the industry to create new testing procedures for emerging technical challenges and regulatory requirements. When independent observation is required to meet existing standards, C-FER can provide this service, ensuring accurate execution of testing programs at various facilities.
Riski Adianto, MSc, PEng
Research Engineer
Riski Adianto holds a MSc and BSc in Mechanical Engineering and MSc in Statistics from the University of Alberta.
With over 15 years of experience in engineering analysis and research, Riski is extensively involved in pipeline risk and reliability projects concerning various threats such as corrosion, crack, dent, mechanical damage, frost heave, and thaw settlement.
