September 21, 2018

Quantitative risk analyses are used in the pipeline industry to identify high-risk locations and main contributing threats; to evaluate risk against an acceptance criterion; to evaluate changes in risk over time; to guide integrity management decisions; and to demonstrate regulatory compliance.

We developed for the U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) guidelines for the development and application of pipeline quantitative risk analysis models for natural gas and hazardous liquids transmission pipelines. The purpose of these guidelines are to:

  • Assist operators in developing new models and in identifying and addressing gaps in existing models;
  • Help regulators evaluate the accuracy, completeness and effectiveness of models developed by operators;
  • Address the quantitative risk analysis process for a system-wide risk assessment, as well as more narrowly-focused studies;
  • Enable the development of simplified subjective risk models; and
  • Provide the tools to facilitate incremental improvements toward more detailed and objective models.

Dr. Smitha Koduru is presenting the results of this project at the upcoming International Pipeline Conference in Calgary, Alberta on September 27, 2018 at 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM. The presentation will be in Telus MacLeod E4. You will learn about performing quantitative risk assessments using PHMSA’s guidelines.

The entire paper –”Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Model Development”– is available through the 2018 International Pipeline Conference.

Dr. Smitha Koduru is a Senior Research Engineer in the Integrity & Operations department at C-FER Technologies. Her focus is on risk assessment and detailed analyses of structural systems.

Visit us at booth 303 at the International Pipeline Exposition.


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